Is it possible for Linux to overtake Microsoft Windows as the preferred desktop operating system? Well, based on the current trends, this seems to be unlikely. If there is an OS that's more likely to gain significant market share from Microsoft, it would be the Mac OS.

Checking on the current market share of operating systems on desktop computers, Windows still dominates. On the latest market share based on client computers accessing the Internet in hitslink and various counters, Windows has about 93% share of all Internet clients while Mac OS has about 5% share. Linux has less than 1% share and it seems not be getting better.  W3Counter puts the Linux share to about 2%

According to Pam Derringer of SearchEnterpriseLinux.com, "While hard numbers remain elusive, business adoption of Linux on the desktop appears to be growing, motivated at least in part by the need to stretch IT budgets during the current economic slump."

"Desktop adoption seems likely to continue to grow, especially with the economic downturn and the entry of IBM into the market with its Linux-based Symphony counterpart to the Microsoft Office suite, giving businesses the application tools (in addition to OpenOffice) that they need to run on top of a Linux OS."

Rob Enderle of IT Business Edge wrote in his article that "For Linux to be successful on the desktop, it must give the user an experience that approaches what Apple is doing with the iPhone... So the reason you don't see more Linux on desktop computers is that the right Linux doesn't exist yet. But it may be coming. We probably won't see the full impact of this until 2010 or later, and by then both Apple and Microsoft will have refreshed their offerings."

John Biggs, in his article in CrunchGear.com, intimated that Linux will never supplant Windows on the desktop or even gain a significant share in the average home computer.  For him, the desktop is dying and "Linux have already taken the second – soon-to-be central screen – the cellphone and that’s more than enough. Open source is now mobile."

"(Linux) will beat Windows, at least on the mobile front, and by the time anyone notices (Linux) will own the majority of the small screens in the world. (Open source) will never rule the desktop, but (it) can rule the real estate around the desktop, a greater prize indeed."

Let's wait and see when Microsoft finally releases Windows 7 to replace the most dominant operating system on the desktop today, the Windows XP. Windows Vista may have put some doubts on the ability of Microsoft to maintain their monopoly on the desktop OS but Windows 7 shows some promises.